Throughout the last couple of years, we've seen a plethora of news posts about the way virtual reality was about to save the classic arcade. The idea goes that the VR equipment is too expensive for home users, so it creates an opportunity for operators to pony up the big dollars to buy it and then make their money back by charging per game to play with it. Even Nolan Bushnell, the inventor of Pong, is attempting to hype the tech since the industry's savior. In the MIT Technology Review.
"While several high-end cans were released last year which can bring virtual-reality adventures to your living room, adoption of the technology remains in its earliest days to get a bunch of reasons--it's still bulky, expensive, and there is not all that far to do as soon as you've got it on your face. Over two million headsets were shipped worldwide in 2016, according to a quote from market researcher Canalys, but this figure pales compared to the prevalence of, say, video game consoles (sales of the leading one, Sony's PS4, topped six million during the 2016 holiday season ). Consumer virtual reality will probably catch on as prices come down and headsets improve. Meanwhile, though, a variety of companies are betting that customers may be happy to cover a much smaller amount to try out the tech with their buddies at, say, an arcade, theme park, or bowling alley"
It is tempting to fall into this snare, but in the operator's standpoint VR is a terrible thing. Operators are being asked to pay top dollar for technology that's all but guaranteed to plummet in value over the very short term. Aside from buying a brand-new vehicle and driving it a mile, I can't think about a way that you could lose money quicker between what you pay and what you will be able to get for it down the road.
Another limit for most operators is that while you might be able to supply a space for VR people to wander around in now, as new VR technology is introduced, we're going to see the stage expanded from 100 square feet to the entire world. Rather than viewing just the matches from your headset, you'll realize the real world with sport play overlayed. As the tech allows more real world places to be explored, it's going to make a cramped arcade seem fairly lame in comparison.
VR is heading for mass market acceptance, but it's demand is not being pushed by players who wish to pay big buck to play with video games, but such as the BETAMAX that came before it, by people who wish to watch pornography in their houses.
Even if an operator can make a bit of money for the next few years, once VR achieves critical mass, then it will crush whatever revenue stream that operators're dreaming of. Don't believe me? Just check out what's going on in China.
Last year, an eye popping 35,000 virtual reality arcades opened up in China. A year later 22,000 of these have closed.
This is an unbelievable failure rate over such a short period of time and one which should serve as a sharp warning to anyone considering investing in the VR games. Perhaps Dave and
kids indoor playground Busters can afford to take losses over the games longer than Chinese startup arcades, but I doubt that most North American operators will fare far better with the technology in their match rooms and will only end up in debt in the end of the day.
The issue essentially boils down to customers not being prepared to pay a premium for the encounter. Tech In Asia, describes the issue perfectly in their article, on that the Chinese VR boom and bust.
"Enterprising store owners jumped into VR are finding it impossible to charge fees comparable to cinemas or bowling alleys for a VR experience. 1 VR arcade proprietor told iHeima he saw eager queues when charging US$1.50 to get a 30-minute session, but everyone disappeared when it climbed to US$5. By that sort of revenue it is not possible to pay the rent."
Even if the game was sold out daily, at $1.50 per half hour they're just earning $30 a day.
The actual world
data streaming in from China should function as a canary in the quarter mines of North America. Operators who invest considerable amounts of money on elaborate VR setups will soon find their little VR rooms being replaced by the whole world for a stage. Since the setups get more expensive, smaller and more portable, the virtual arcades will seem more expensive, bulky and limited.
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